Weekly Spark: Housing Data Wins, 2026 Outlook, and a Free Planning Booklet

The Housing Market Ended 2025 With Some Real Progress

The final Weekly Spark episode of 2025 brought a little good news into the new year.

Pending home sales increased. Mortgage rates had started to ease. More homes were available for buyers, and wage growth was beginning to outpace home-price growth.

None of that means housing suddenly became cheap or that every market is ready to take off.

It does show that several parts of the affordability problem were finally moving in a better direction at the same time.

For buyers, that could create more options.

For real estate agents, it could mean more conversations turning into actual transactions in 2026.

Pending Home Sales Reached a Nearly Three-Year High

Pending home sales rose 3.3% from October to November, according to the National Association of Realtors data discussed in the episode.

That moved pending sales activity to its strongest level in nearly three years.

Pending sales measure contracts that have been signed but have not closed yet. They can offer an early look at where completed home sales may be headed in the following weeks or months.

The increase suggests that more buyers were willing and able to move forward before the end of the year.

That matters because buyers spent much of the previous few years dealing with some combination of high mortgage rates, rising prices, limited inventory, and monthly payments that simply did not work.

A 3.3% monthly increase does not erase those challenges. It does show that buyer activity can return when affordability starts to improve.

Why Home Affordability Was Beginning to Improve

The improvement in pending sales was not tied to one single factor.

Mortgage rates had eased from previous highs, giving some buyers a lower projected payment.

Wage growth had also started to outpace home-price growth. When income rises faster than housing prices, buyers can slowly regain some of the purchasing power they lost.

There was also more inventory available.

More inventory gives buyers choices. It can reduce the pressure to make rushed offers, waive protections, or compete against several other buyers for every decent property.

The housing market still had a long way to go before most people would call it affordable. The direction was better than it had been.

That is the part worth paying attention to.

What Easing Mortgage Rates Could Mean for Buyers

Even a small mortgage-rate improvement can change a buyer’s numbers.

A lower rate may reduce the monthly principal and interest payment. It could also help a buyer qualify for a different price range or make a home that was previously outside the budget more realistic.

The exact effect depends on the loan amount, loan program, credit profile, down payment, property, and current market pricing.

Buyers should not assume that rates will keep dropping in a straight line.

Mortgage rates can change quickly based on inflation reports, employment data, bond-market activity, Federal Reserve policy, government decisions, and events around the world.

The goal is not to guess the lowest possible rate.

The goal is to know what payment works, understand the available options, and be prepared when the right home shows up.

The 2026 Federal Reserve Outlook

The Weekly Spark episode also looked ahead to a possible change in Federal Reserve leadership during 2026.

The expectation shared in the episode was that a future chair could take a more dovish approach. A dovish Federal Reserve official is generally more willing to lower interest rates to support employment and economic growth, provided inflation allows it.

A change in Federal Reserve leadership does not guarantee lower mortgage rates.

The Federal Reserve also does not directly set 30-year fixed mortgage rates. Mortgage pricing is influenced more directly by the bond market and mortgage-backed securities.

Federal Reserve decisions still matter because they shape expectations about inflation, economic growth, and future monetary policy.

If inflation continues moving lower and the economy slows, markets may begin expecting more rate cuts. That can create a better environment for mortgage rates.

If inflation picks back up, the path becomes harder.

Home Prices Showed Renewed Momentum

Two major home-price indexes showed annual price growth near the end of 2025.

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index reported that home prices were up 1.4% from the year before. According to the episode, this was the first pickup in annual price growth since earlier that year.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index showed a slightly stronger 1.7% year-over-year increase.

These numbers point to a market where home prices were still growing, but at a much slower pace than buyers experienced during the housing surge earlier in the decade.

That slower growth can be healthier for the market.

Homeowners may still gain equity without prices running away from buyer incomes as quickly as they did before.

Buyers should remember that national averages do not describe every local market. Some cities may see stronger price growth. Others may stay flat or experience price reductions.

The numbers that matter most are the recent comparable sales, current inventory, and buyer demand in the area where someone is actually planning to purchase or sell.

What the Labor Market Was Telling Us

The episode also covered weekly unemployment claims.

Initial jobless claims fell by 16,000. Continuing claims declined as well.

That may sound like a clear sign of a strong labor market, but holiday data can be messy.

Employers sometimes delay layoffs around the holidays. Workers may also wait to file unemployment claims because they are traveling or away from their normal routines.

The decline in continuing claims may have another explanation. Some people could have reached the end of their benefit eligibility rather than returning to work.

That is why one weekly report should not be treated as the full story.

Employment matters to housing because buyers need stable income to qualify for and comfortably repay a mortgage. A strong job market can support housing demand. A weakening job market can make buyers more cautious, even if mortgage rates are improving.

The January data would give the market a clearer picture after the holiday-related noise settled down.

What This Means for Homebuyers in 2026

The early 2026 housing outlook gave buyers more reason to pay attention.

More inventory could create better choices.

Slower home-price growth could give incomes a chance to catch up.

Easing mortgage rates could help monthly payments.

That does not mean every buyer should rush into a purchase.

The home still needs to fit the buyer’s income, cash position, timeline, and plans. The payment should work without depending on a future refinance or a major increase in income.

Buyers who are considering a move should start by reviewing their numbers.

That means understanding the estimated payment, cash needed to close, loan options, property taxes, homeowners insurance, mortgage insurance when required, and the ongoing cost of maintaining the home.

Clarity comes before the house search.

What Real Estate Agents Should Take From the Data

The increase in pending home sales is good news for real estate professionals, but stronger data does not automatically create a stronger business.

Agents still need to communicate with their database, follow up with old leads, educate hesitant buyers, and help sellers understand what is happening in their local market.

This is also a good time to reconnect with people who paused their plans when mortgage rates were higher.

Some of those buyers may now have a different payment.

Others may have received a raise, paid down debt, improved their credit, or saved more money.

The agent who reaches out with useful information has a better chance of restarting that conversation than the one who waits for the client to come back.

A Better Way to Plan Your Real Estate Business in 2026

The second half of the episode moved from housing data into business and personal planning.

Creative 1st Mortgage created a free planning booklet designed to help real estate professionals take an honest look at where they are and decide what needs to improve.

It is not just a production-goal worksheet.

The process begins with a personal self-audit. It asks users to evaluate their personal life, relationships, and the areas that may need more attention.

The professional audit looks at several parts of the business:

• Marketing

• Sales

• Operations

• Finances

• Leadership

• Time management

The purpose is to identify where the business is actually strong and where the owner may be avoiding the work.

A sales problem may really be a follow-up problem.

A marketing problem may really be a consistency problem.

A time problem may be a priority problem.

The audit gives real estate professionals a place to be honest before building another plan that looks good on paper and disappears by February.

Turning a Vision Into a Working Plan

The booklet also includes a process called “visionering.”

The first step is getting clear about where you are now.

That part matters because a useful plan cannot be built on fake numbers, vague goals, or the version of the business someone wishes they had.

From there, the booklet helps users work through the seven boxes of life, daily and weekly priorities, monthly and yearly goals, and short-term and long-term planning.

It also includes one-year and five-year story exercises.

Those exercises help turn a list of goals into a clearer picture of what life and business could look like if the work gets done.

The final step is action.

Business goals have to become calendar commitments. Priorities have to receive time. The work has to fit into real days and weeks instead of living on a vision board.

Time Mapping and Taking Back Control of the Calendar

Most business plans fail because they never reach the calendar.

An agent may say that past-client follow-up matters, but there is no time blocked for calls.

They may want to create more content, but content gets pushed behind every appointment, email, and unexpected problem.

They may say family time is the reason they are building the business, then allow the business to consume every evening.

Time mapping forces the plan into reality.

The booklet walks users through daily, weekly, monthly, and annual priorities. It is designed to help people time-block the work, manage competing responsibilities, and take back control of where their time goes.

The point is not to fill every open hour.

The point is to make sure the most important parts of life and business are not left with whatever time happens to be left.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did pending home sales increase at the end of 2025?

Yes. The data discussed in the Weekly Spark showed pending home sales rising 3.3% from October to November. That placed activity at its strongest level in nearly three years.

Was housing affordability improving?

The episode pointed to three improving factors: mortgage rates had eased, wage growth was outpacing home-price growth, and more housing inventory was available.

Were home prices falling?

Not nationally, based on the indexes discussed. The Case-Shiller Index showed annual home-price growth of 1.4%, while the FHFA index reported growth of 1.7%.

Will mortgage rates fall in 2026?

The episode shared a positive outlook for rates, partly based on the possibility of more rate-friendly Federal Reserve leadership. Mortgage rates are not guaranteed to fall and can change based on inflation, employment, bond-market movement, and other economic conditions.

Why do employment numbers matter to the housing market?

Stable employment gives buyers more confidence and supports mortgage qualification. A weakening labor market can reduce demand and make buyers more cautious.

What is included in the free 2026 planning booklet?

The booklet includes personal and professional self-audits, business assessments, vision exercises, daily and long-term planning, goal-to-action worksheets, and time-mapping tools.

Who is the planning booklet designed for?

The episode presented it as a useful resource for real estate professionals, with some lender-specific sections. Much of the personal planning, business auditing, leadership, finance, and time-management content can apply to other business owners as well.

The Bottom Line

The housing data heading into 2026 was better.

Pending sales were up. Inventory had improved. Wages were gaining ground on home prices, and mortgage rates had started to ease.

That creates an opportunity, but opportunity still needs action.

Buyers need to understand their numbers before they start chasing houses.

Real estate professionals need to understand their market before they start making predictions.

Business owners need an honest plan before another year fills up with the same work, the same problems, and the same excuses.

The market may give us better conditions in 2026.

What we do with them is still on us.

To request a free copy of the 2026 personal and business planning booklet featured in this episode, reach out to Creative 1st Mortgage.

Creative 1st Mortgage | NMLS# 2614631 | Licensed in FL, MN, TX, AL, KY & TN. This is not a commitment to lend. All loans subject to credit approval, income verification, and property eligibility. Program terms and availability subject to change without notice. FHA loans require mortgage insurance. Down payment assistance is provided as a second mortgage lien. Restrictions may apply.